Inductive Reasoning Games as Influenza Vaccination Models: Mean Field Analysis

We define and analyze an inductive reasoning game of voluntary yearly vaccination in order to establish whether or not a population of individuals acting in their own self-interest would be able to prevent influenza epidemics. We find that epidemics are rarely prevented. We also find that severe epidemics may occur without the introduction of pandemic strains. We further address the situation where market incentives are introduced to help ameliorating epidemics. Surprisingly, we find that vaccinating families exacerbates epidemics. However, a public health program requesting prepayment of vaccinations may significantly ameliorate influenza epidemics.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figure

Modelling the spinning dust emission from LDN 1780

We study the anomalous microwave emission (AME) in the Lynds Dark Nebula (LDN) 1780 on two angular scales. Using available ancillary data at an angular resolution of 1 degree, we construct an SED between 0.408 GHz to 2997 GHz. We show that there is a significant amount of AME at these angular scales and the excess is compatible with a physical spinning dust model. We find that LDN 1780 is one of the clearest examples of AME on 1 degree scales. We detected AME with a significance > 20$\sigma$. We also find at these angular scales that the location of the peak of the emission at frequencies between 23-70 GHz differs from the one on the 90-3000 GHz map. In order to investigate the origin of the AME in this cloud, we use data obtained with the Combined Array for Research in Millimeter-wave Astronomy (CARMA) that provides 2 arcmin resolution at 30 GHz. We study the connection between the radio and IR emissions using morphological correlations. The best correlation is found to be with MIPS 70$\mu$m, which traces warm dust (T$\sim$50K). Finally, we study the difference in radio emissivity between two locations within the cloud. We measured a factor $\approx 6$ of difference in 30 GHz emissivity. We show that this variation can be explained, using the spinning dust model, by a variation on the dust grain size distribution across the cloud, particularly changing the carbon fraction and hence the amount of PAHs.Comment: 14 pages, 11 figures, submitted to MNRA

Measuring public perceptions of sex offenders: reimagining the Community Attitudes Toward Sex Offenders (CATSO) scale

The Community Attitudes Toward Sex Offenders (CATSO) scale is an 18-item self-report questionnaire designed to measure respondents’ attitudes toward sex offenders. Its original factor structure has been questioned by a number of previous studies, and so this paper sought to reimagine the scale as an outcome measure, as opposed to a scale of attitudes. A face validity analysis produced a provisional three-factor structure underlying the CATSO: ‘punitiveness,’ ‘stereotype endorsement,’ and ‘risk perception.’ A sample of 400 British members of the public completed a modified version of the CATSO, the Attitudes Toward Sex Offenders scale, the General Punitiveness Scale, and the Rational-Experiential Inventory. A three-factor structure of a 22-item modified CATSO was supported using half of the sample, with factors being labeled ‘sentencing and management,’ ‘stereotype endorsement,’ and ‘risk perception.’ Confirmatory factor analysis on data from the other half of the sample endorsed the three-factor structure; however, two items were removed in order to improve ratings of model fit. This new 20-item ‘Perceptions of Sex Offenders scale’ has practical utility beyond the measurement of attitudes, and suggestions for its future use are provided

Far infrared maps of the ridge between OMC-1 and OMC-2

Dust continuum emission from a 6 ft x 20 ft region surrounding OMC-1 and OMC-2 were mapped at 55 and 125 microns with 4 ft resolution. The dominant features of the maps are a strong peak at OMC-1 and a ridge of lower surface brightness between OMC-1 and OMC-2. Along the ridge the infrared flux densities and the color temperature decreases smoothly from OMC-1 to OMC-2. OMC-1 is heated primarily by several optical and infrared stars situated within or just at the boundary of the cloud. At the region of minimum column density between OMC-1 and OMC-2 the nearby B0.5 V star NU Ori may contribute significantly to the dust heating. Near OMC-2 dust column densities are large enough so that, in addition to the OMC-2 infrared cluster, the nonlocal infrared sources associated with OMC-1 and NU Ori can contribute to the heating

TEXES Observations of M Supergiants: Dynamics and Thermodynamics of Wind Acceleration

We have detected [Fe II] 17.94 um and 24.52 um emission from a sample of M supergiants using TEXES on the IRTF. These low opacity emission lines are resolved at R = 50, 000 and provide new diagnostics of the dynamics and thermodynamics of the stellar wind acceleration zone. The [Fe II] lines, from the first excited term, are sensitive to the warm plasma where energy is deposited into the extended atmosphere to form the chromosphere and wind outflow. These diagnostics complement previous KAO and ISO observations which were sensitive to the cooler and more extended circumstellar envelopes. The turbulent velocities, Vturb is about 12 to 13 km/s, observed in the [Fe II] forbidden lines are found to be a common property of our sample, and are less than that derived from the hotter chromospheric C II] 2325 Angstrom lines observed in alpha Ori, where Vturb is about 17 to 19 km/s. For the first time, we have dynamically resolved the motions of the dominant cool atmospheric component discovered in alpha Ori from multi-wavelength radio interferometry by Lim et al. (1998). Surprisingly, the emission centroids are quite Gaussian and at rest with respect to the M supergiants. These constraints combined with model calculations of the infrared emission line fluxes for alpha Ori imply that the warm material has a low outflow velocity and is located close to the star. We have also detected narrow [Fe I] 24.04 um emission that confirms that Fe II is the dominant ionization state in alpha Ori's extended atmosphere.Comment: 79 pages including 10 figures and 2 appendices. Accepted by Ap

Far infrared and submillimeter brightness temperatures of the giant planets

The brightness temperatures of Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune in the range 35 to 1000 micron. The effective temperatures derived from the measurements, supplemented by shorter wavelength Voyager data for Jupiter and Saturn, are 126.8 + or - 4.5 K, 93.4 + or - 3.3 K, 58.3 + or - 2.0 K, and 60.3 + or - 2.0 K, respectively. The implications of the measurements for bolometric output and for atmospheric structure and composition are discussed. The temperature spectrum of Jupiter shows a strong peak at approx. 350 microns followed by a deep valley at approx. 450 to 500 microns. Spectra derived from model atmospheres qualitatively reproduced these features but do not fit the data closely